• One Percent Trading Group

AUDUSD Forex Analysis

Updated: Aug 30

Market has finally broken out of the range with convincing price activity which defines that the absorption was being done by the Supply force and is quite evident because of the down break.


AUDUSD Daily Chart showing Wyckoff Accumulation and Re-distribution Schematics

Following the changing fundamentals seen in previous weeks of AUD failing to gain strength against the USD, the downturn continues for the AUDUSD as hot money maintains a bias to short the AUDUSD.


AUDUSD Fundamental Differentials - 1%Trading Group Dashboard

Fundamental Differentials:

  • Relative GDP - New data shows USD now stronger than AUD by 0.13%. Suggests a Short of AUDUSD.


  • Interest Rate - USD has a more attractive ROI for foreign investors, and their action with investment will lead to the strengthening of the USD over AUD by 0.08%.


  • Relative Wealth - AUD stronger than USD by 2.48% in terms of relative wealth. Figures have been dropping, meaning USD is gaining in Wealth ratio. This indicates a reducing confidence to long the AUDUSD.


  • COT Data - A continuous trend seen from the previous weeks. Expansion of rising interest in the USD and falling interest in the AUD. These interpret that smart money are still investing into USD and reducing their interest on AUD.

AUDUSD Long Term Macro Chart Summary - 1%Trading Group Dashboard

Long Term Score for USD yet maintaining a higher score at +23. A drop from +38 and defines a lessening strength in the USD. The score for AUD fell further through to +1. This transition is important to note as it may strongly signify a continuity in trend downward due to the lack of up thrust force in the Australian currency.


AUDUSD Short Term Macro Chart Summary - 1%Trading Group Dashboard

Short Term Fundamental Score for USD shows a higher score for USD at -15. With AUD Short Term score at - 30. Also indicating that AUD is experiencing a peaking deflationary condition compared to USD. Note that Short Term Fundamental Score is more tentative to change but can be a good indicative for Short to intermediate term market expectations. All data favouring a Short Scenario. Simply adds more confidence to the trade.


AUDUSD 4Hour Chart Wyckoff Re-distribution Schematic

Conclusion


With new evidence of falling fundamental score for AUD Long Term & Short Term, and also considering the confluence of Price Action breakout below the range that strongly indicates dominant Selling within the consolidation area, odds favour taking a bias on the Short side for AUDUSD. Trade can be taken off a technical feature with self-conviction or point of interest on the Price Chart.



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