AUDUSD Forex Analysis Update
Updated: Aug 30
Summary of the technical charts for AUDUSD and real-time economic Fundamentals Scores from the 1%Trading Group website.
The market is in an Accumulation or Redistribution phase. The same setup is true and opposite for the Dollar Index. Still, within the range, targets after a clear breakout through the range of 0.74636 - 0.76160 will be the pockets of liquidity seen on the volume profile chart below.
We maintain a bias derived from our Fundamental Analysis overlaid with the technical analysis.
Relative GDP - AUD stronger than USD by 1.9% and this would suggest a buy of AUDUSD.
IR Rate - This shows that USD will have better output or earning potential from investors which their action would lead to the strengthening of the USD over AUD by 0.08%.
Relative Wealth - AUD stronger than USD by 4.28% in terms of relative wealth. This would suggest a buy of the AUDUSD.
COT Data - Smart money investing into USD while reducing their interest on AUD as opposed to the previous week.
Expansion seen on the chart defines rising interest in the USD and falling interest in the AUD.
The cumulative fundamentals show a higher score for USD at +38, A drop from the score of +50 indicates prevailing weakness in the USD.
The score for AUD rose from +13 to +24, and another fall back to +13 that defines a reluctance for the Australian currency to rise in strength.
USD is likely transitioning from inflationary to deflationary conditions.
While AUD is recovering from deflation into new inflation with less certainty due to the score failing to maintain a steady rise.
Although there's still more upside potential for growth for the AUD.
Going forward, we view the present range of the price chart as an Accumulation phase but with less conviction as AUD is experiencing slower-paced inflationary growth.
In summary, long term we're most likely to Short the USD and Long the AUD. We'll watch the technical analysis anticipating a breakout and see the price response at those points, at the same time we keep an eye on the fundamental differentials for clues on potential changes in bias.
This simple analysis projects the true dynamism of the economic system. Where money flows and investing isn't fixed or predetermined but is constantly changing due to real-time economic events.
As seen with AUD & USD fluctuating fundamental scores where both currencies are starting to show relative weakness short term while maintaining an overall bias to go Long but swaying away confidence in the trade.
If you haven't already checked out the weekly forecast from the 1% trading group that gives forecasts this week from a fundamental & technical POV, Please watch the video below that goes into more trade ideas for the week